Climate Change Risks and Hazards
Our changing climate poses a major environmental, social and economic problem to society, including our historic environment. Understanding the risks climate change poses to our historic sites and places will help us plan our responses to its impacts and identify opportunities to adapt and become more resilient.
On this page, you can find out about our developing work to understand risks to heritage, including information on how to monitor and quantify risks and tools to map climate-related hazards. The historic environment sector will need to understand these to comply with different regulations and apply policy. By considering climate change risks in our decision-making processes, we will be able to make more climate resilient and energy efficient decisions for our heritage assets and historic places.
Climate change risk
We are working to identify, understand and respond to the long-term impacts of climate change. This is a constantly evolving area and we are working to ensure these impacts are considered in our guidance and data.
Climate change risk refers to the potential negative consequences for human or ecological systems from the potential impacts of climate change, or from human responses to it. (Definition by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change).
Climate change also acts as a ‘risk multiplier’, which means the effects of climate change are likely to magnify existing issues. For example, changing weather patterns may cause more intense rainfall in areas already at risk from flooding. Multiple climate effects can also act together to cause combined impacts. For example, erosion at the coast caused by higher sea levels in combination with ground instability caused by heavy rainfall leading to landslides.
We do not yet fully understand the long-term risks and impacts of climate change for our heritage. However, we know that we can expect to see, and in some places are already seeing, climate change effects across the country.
These will include:
- Increased temperatures
- Changing rainfall patterns
- Sea-level rise
- Severe weather events
- Flooding.
The potential occurrence of effects which may cause damage to heritage assets, which we refer to as climate hazards, might be felt differently across the country over different timescales. They might also act together to cause combined hazards, such as wind-driven rain.
Definitions: climate change hazards and impacts
The distinction between key terms relating to climate change risk assessment, including hazard, impact and driver, can be confusing. We use definitions set out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), aligning cultural heritage with international climate change science. The IPCC is the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change.
Climate change hazards are the potential occurrences of natural or physical events that may cause damage or loss, such as rising sea-levels or increased temperatures. Climate change impacts are the consequence of climate hazards acting upon assets which are both exposed and vulnerable to them.
Responses to the risks presented by climate hazards should be grounded in best practice by ensuring that options appraisals are informed using accurate evidence. Such appraisals should be informed by those who know the site, and should also consider that the site’s future use might be different from the current use/s.
One solution fits all approaches are not appropriate, as these come from an assumption that every site will be the same – all sites have unique characteristics.
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Term |
Definition |
|---|---|
|
Driver |
Any natural or human-induced factor that directly or indirectly causes a change in a system |
|
Climactic Impact-Driver |
A physical climate condition that directly affects society or ecosystems |
|
Hazard |
The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems and environmental resources |
|
Impact |
The consequence of realised risks on natural and human systems, where risks result from the interactions of climate-related hazards (including extreme weather and climate events), exposure, and vulnerability. Impacts may be referred to as consequences or outcomes, and can be adverse or beneficial |
|
Compound hazard / climate event |
The combination of multiple drivers and/or hazards that contributes to societal and/or environmental risk |
|
UK Climate Projections (UKCP) |
This is data developed by the Met Office to show how the UK climate may change in future. The most recent is UKCP18. |
Caption: This table, with citations, is set out in a Historic England research report.
Risks to heritage
The section below sets out some of the key climactic impact drivers and associated hazards, along with their potential impacts for heritage assets. Specific information on the effects of climate change on our historic buildings can be found on our Technical Advice pages.
|
Climactic impact driver and associated hazards |
Impacts on heritage |
|---|---|
|
Coastal change: relative sea level, coastal flood, coastal erosion |
Britain’s coastline has changed continually, but the rate of change and where its greatest impacts will be are affected by these coastal hazards. Consequences are potentially the total loss of or significant damage to individual heritage assets. |
|
Heat and cold: average temperature, high temperature events, uncontrolled fire |
In the sea, temperature increase is affecting conditions that have previously preserved a rich maritime heritage. On land, it may lead to changing patterns of land use that could present challenges for terrestrial heritage. Increasing temperatures give rise to different flora and fauna, some of which may be harmful to our heritage. This is likely to have a major impact on plants, particularly trees, affecting the appearance of designed landscapes. New pests and diseases may affect designed landscapes, buildings and collections. Some collection materials and building fabric can also be impacted by high temperature events. |
|
Wet and Dry: average precipitation patterns, heavy precipitation events, wind-driven rain |
Intense pluvial events, and persistent periods of rainfall on saturated or impermeable ground, can damage buildings, flood historic areas and landscapes, affect planting in designed landscapes, and exacerbate erosion. Floodplains and valley bottoms are also likely to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of floods, destabilising structures and bridges as river courses change. |
|
Heat and Cold & Wet and dry: average humidity patterns, rapid humidity fluctuations |
Collections and building fabric can be heavily impacted by fluctuations in humidity, and high and low humidity events |
|
Wet and dry: hydrological, agricultural and ecological drought, landslide, shrink-swell, desiccation |
Drought can harm plants that make up designed and historic landscapes, affect archaeological deposits, in particular waterlogged deposits, affect the stability of buildings and other structures. It can affect ground stability and exacerbate erosion. Desiccation of wetlands can have a dramatic effect on the preservation of waterlogged archaeological and palaeo-environmental material. The drying out of certain geologies (for example, clay) can affect ground stability and increase subsidence affecting historic structures and affecting archaeological sites. Preservation in situ (in the ground) will become increasingly difficult as these damaging cycles create stressful environments for buried archaeology, see our guidance on the preservation of archaeology in situ. |
|
Compound hazards |
Several potential risks could manifest due to compound hazards. Further research is needed to understand the potential future impacts on heritage, such as assessing how changes in temperature and relative humidity will affect insect pest populations and plant growth. |
Opportunities
There are also potential opportunities for heritage within climate change action or due to climate change impacts, including:
- New discoveries, for example dry conditions revealing archaeological sites
- Prolonged fieldwork seasons and extended tourist season with opportunities for increased interest in heritage
- Learning from the past: the historic environment can inform integrated solutions such as management and adaptation approaches that deliver for biodiversity, heritage protection, and climate action
- Advocating for the positive role the historic environment can play in climate action
- Increased opportunities for community engagement and broadening access to heritage
- Greater collaboration with existing and new partners for knowledge, expertise and data.
Our climate hazard vocabulary
We have developed a standardised vocabulary of climate hazards for heritage. The vocabulary sets out key terms and defines over 50 hazards which could impact heritage assets, including those listed in the section on risks to heritage above.
The use of these standardised terms can allow heritage professionals to consistently record which hazards sites are at risk from. This can inform assessments of climate change impacts on both single heritage sites and the wider historic environment.
We have published a research report outlining the definitions we are using in our work, the method behind the hazard vocabulary, and information on how it could be used to inform climate change risk assessment on site.
The full hazard vocabulary is available as a thesaurus on the Forum for Information Standards in Heritage (FISH) and as a downloadable Excel spreadsheet.
Climate change and heritage training
Our Climate Change and the Historic Environment programme delivers training that will deepen understanding of the role that the historic environment can play in climate action and aid the deployment of existing and emerging government policies, legislation and good practice.
The programme is aimed primarily at local authority historic environment services, planning officers, other professionals whose advice-giving or decision-making affects the historic environment, and heritage organisations involved in climate change adaptation or mitigation measures.
What tools are available to help understand climate change risk to heritage?
There is a large volume of publicly available information and data on climate change risk. Information is available from a range of organisations including the Met Office, agencies like the Environment Agency, research institutions like the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology and the private sector. It can be a challenge to find the best data to inform risk assessment at site level.
Our project to identify tools and resources sets out sources of information to help owners and managers understand the potential risk to their heritage sites from climate change hazards.
Climate data tools range from simple PDF documents to online web portals showing hazards mapped at different spatial scales (from local to national), to complex tools requiring users to have technical experience with the software.
Some of the best available resources are summarised below – whether you are just starting to consider how climate change may affect your site or looking to carry out a more detailed climate change risk assessment for particular hazards. The tools identified below are freely available and most have detailed user guides contained within them.
Some local authorities may have local data available online and there are also multiple sources of paid-for data. Due to the ever-expanding volume of climate change data resources, we are not able to list all of them.
Downloadable climate projection data
Met Office Climate Data Portal
The Met Office Data Portal allows users to access and download a variety of climate change data in a range of file formats. It also allows for online visualisation of certain datasets.
It includes data on the following climate hazards:
- Precipitation
- Drought
- High and low temperature
- Sea level rise
British Geological Survey
The British Geological Survey is a world-leading geological survey and global geoscience organisation and the UK’s main provider of geoscientific data to help manage environmental change and be resilient to environmental hazards.
They provide both free and licensed datasets relevant to understanding climate change hazards such as shrink-swell, showing potential changes in subsidence due to changes in climate.
CHESS-SCAPE
The CHESS-SCAPE website, funded by the Natural Environment Research Council, allows users to download future projections at a 1 kilometre resolution for the UK up to 2080. The data is derived from UKCP18.
Climate data tools: national or regional level
Environment Agency Climate Impacts Tool
This simple document, aimed at Environment Agency staff, is a good introduction when starting to consider climate change risk assessment and the potential impact of climate change on sites.
It gives an England-level overview of some of the key climate change hazards such as increased temperature, rainfall and sea-level rise. It then provides information on how to start considering the impacts that these hazards could have on people, sites, ecosystems. It is not a data source or a tool that allows scenario planning.
Environment Agency Coastal Erosion Risk Mapping
The Environment Agency is responsible for assessing risks from coastal erosion and flooding and has produced a range of mapping tools allowing users to understand these risks in their areas. These include the National Coastal Erosion Risk Map (NCERM) and the Shoreline Management Plan Explorer.
The Environment Agency is publishing new national risk information for flooding and coastal erosion in 2025 which will include future scenarios for climate change.
Forest Research: Climate Match
This climate matching tool allows users to compare the projected future climate of their area with the current climate in other areas in Europe. It is primarily aimed at users managing sites including trees and forests to allow them to plan for and adapt to future climate.
It uses UKCP18 climate projections to identify sites which are similar to one another based on average monthly temperature, diurnal temperature range and rainfall.
The tool is designed to be used in conjunction with the Ecological Site Classification (ESC) tool. This is a web-based decision support system to help forest managers and planners select tree species that are ecologically suited to their sites.
National Trust climate hazard mapping
This web app presents climate hazard mapping across the UK for multiple hazards. It has been a key step in developing sector understanding of exposure of sites to hazards. The mapping project also involved Cadw, Dept of Communities (Northern Ireland), English Heritage Trust, Historic England, Historic Environment Scotland and National Trust Scotland.
The mapping is hosted by the National Trust and allows users to see a 5 kilometre hex-grid map of the UK to get a broad idea of the current and future (to 2080, depending on the dataset). It covers hazards including:
- Overheating and humidity
- Storm damage
- Landslides
- Soil heave
- High temperature (over 30°C) / low temperature
- Rainfall
- Drought
- Urban heat islanding
- Wind speed
The map is a tool to flag the most likely hazards over a relatively localised area to trigger conversations and to help target more detailed assessment. It is not a definitive list of hazards for individual sites.
Local Climate Adaptation Tool
The Local Climate Adaptation Tool (LCAT) aims to support local decision makers across the UK to plan for and adapt to climate change. It is developed by a partnership between the European Centre for Environment and Human Health and Cornwall Council with input from The Alan Turing Institute.
It provides a county-level dashboard of information for two climate change scenarios, a mid-range and a worst-case scenario. The focus of the tool is on decision-makers, such as the NHS, local authorities and emergency services, involved in designing climate change adaptation for human health. However, the dashboards may be useful to those considering climate change impacts across a particular area.
Users can select information about various climate hazards including: heatwaves, uncontrolled fires, air quality, flooding and coastal erosion. The tool will point users to available local data on each hazard.
Climate data tools: Information at a local or site-specific scale
UK Climate Risk Indicator Explorer
The Climate Risk Indicator Explorer provides information on future changes to indicators of climate risk across the UK. The information is provided at scales ranging from the district to the four nations of the UK.
The research underpinning the data on the website was undertaken as part of the UK Climate Resilience Programme, funded by UK Research and Innovation and the Met Office. It uses the UKCP18 climate projections produced by the Met Office.
The hazards covered include average temperature, minimum and maximum temperature, as well as extreme weather, such as extreme heat and rainfall.
It provides information on several different scenarios describing how global emissions of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change might increase in the future. Users can compare different climate scenarios or locations.
Users can plot maps showing the variation in indicators across the UK and can plot and download locational data.
Environment Agency Flood risk map for planning
The Flood Risk Map for Planning website is a government tool developed by the Environment Agency. It allows you to view the current flood risk for an area based on postcode or national grid reference (NGR). Information is available on river, sea, surface water, groundwater and reservoir flooding. It does not provide information on future climate change scenarios.
It is designed to help planning applicants consider whether they need a flood risk assessment as part of a planning application.
The Environment Agency is publishing new national risk information for flooding and coastal erosion in 2025 which will include future scenarios for climate change.
Climate Impact Explorer
This tool, developed by Climate Analytics, shows how the severity of climate change impacts will increase over time in continents, countries and provinces at different levels of warming, starting with 1.5°C, the limit in the Paris Agreement. It also allows access to the underlying data.
The tool covers a range of hazards and climatic impact drivers including heat and cold, rainfall river flooding, uncontrolled fire risk and humidity. It also models a number of potential impacts such as expected flood damage, impact on labour productivity.
The tool allows the user view information based on a number of parameters, such as country, hazard, climate change scenario and season.
Met Office City Packs
The Met Office has used the latest UK Climate Change Projections to produce City Packs, which are high-level summaries of the future climate for specific UK cities.
These packs use graphics and tables to communicate scientific research in an accessible way to help urban decision-makers and enable cities to become more resilient to climate change.
Local Authority Climate Service
The Met Office has developed a climate service for local authorities in the UK. The website provides tools and resources designed for local authorities to better understand climate change in their local areas and support the development of adaptation action.
This free service is available for all and may be useful to others wishing to understand risk at a relatively local level.
The climate explorer provides projections for climate change impacts on temperature, rainfall and sea level rise for multiple climate scenarios, as well as links to Met Office datasets. Users can generate and download reports for their areas.
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Creating a Vocabulary of Climate Change Hazards for Heritage
Historic England Research Report Series, 13/2024
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Identification of Climate Hazard and Climate Change Adaptation Resources
Historic England Research Reports Series 16/2024
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Mapping Climate-related Hazards to Historic Sites
Historic England Research Reports Series 27/2022
Also of interest
